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Political prognosticators generally agree that the 2010 midterm elections will be good news for the GOP. The only question is the margin of victory, according to Wichita State University political scientist Mel Kahn.
Announcer: The Nov. 2 midterm elections will likely bring change and, if political prognosticators are right, that means good news for the Republican Party. Wichita State University political scientist Mel Kahn says the struggling economy makes it difficult for the party in power.
Kahn: "The difficult challenge is you have to defend whatever is going wrong in the economy, whether it's of your doing or not, and that's the dilemma that the Democrats have."
Announcer: Kahn says it's highly likely that the Republicans will gain control of the House of Representatives. He says the big question is whether the Democrats will retain control of the Senate. This is Joe Kleinsasser at Wichita State University.
Sound bite #1
Kahn says the Republicans are likely to win the House of Representatives. The sound bite is 18 seconds and the outcue is "sufficient majority."
Kahn: "Actually, it's highly unlikely that the Republicans can fail to win the House. The only real question is, will the margin be sufficient enough to get a majority and take control? And I believe the indicators are that they will receive a sufficient majority."
Sound bite #2
Kahn says the Democrats are fighting to maintain control of the Senate. The sound bite is 24 seconds and the outcue is "key races turn out."
Kahn: "Well, for the Democratic Legislature, the best bet is to be able to retain the Senate and stop a lot of legislation from being passed by a Republican majority in both chambers. And I would say right now, I would estimate that the Republicans have about a 40 percent chance of capturing the Senate, depending on how certain key races turn out."
Sound bite #3
Kahn says a big challenge for the Democrats is holding on to the Senate seat in Nevada. The sound bite is 25 seconds and the outcue is "from his opponent, Angle."
Kahn: "A big problem for the Democrats is holding on to the (Senate) seat in Nevada. And both candidates are very flawed. And I would say that in the case of (Harry) Reid, his main hope is that enough of the anti-Reid people will vote for the none-of-the-above alternative on the ballot, and thus take votes away from his opponent, (Sharron) Angle.
Sound bite #4
Kahn explains why President Obama secretly might welcome having the House and Senate go Republican. The sound bite is 16 seconds and the outcue is "his own record."
Kahn: "I think Obama, like Clinton before him, will not say it publicly, but would probably relish the idea of having both the House and the Senate go Republican, so that in 2012 he could be running against the Republicans rather than against his own record."
Sound bite #5
Kahn talks about the most competitive races in Kansas. The sound bite is 14 seconds and the outcue is "quite competitive."
Kahn: "The most competitive races I think are the congressional ones in the Third District and the Fourth. In both cases the Republicans are favored to win, but they're still quite competitive."
Sound bite #6
Kahn says the Fourth District in Kansas has two quality candidates running in this election. The sound bite is 22 seconds and the outcue is "have a real choice."
Kahn: "From the point of an interested citizen, it's a real treat to see two candidates of the caliber of Goyle and Pompeo in the Fourth District. Both of them are highly intelligent, articulate campaigners, both graduates of Harvard Law School, and you can see the difference between them, and the voters have a real choice."
Sound bite #7
Kahn says one key to the midterm elections will be how many independents vote for Republicans. The sound bite is 24 seconds and the outcue is "decisive advantage."
Kahn: "The independents who went very heavily for the Democrats in the last election give every indication of going for the Republicans. In addition to that, the Republican Party, largely energized by the Tea Party people, look like they're going to do a better job of turning out their base than the Democrats will in turning out theirs. And so, for that reason, I think they have a decisive advantage."