Kansas home values will continue to appreciate in the coming year, according to the 2024 Kansas Housing Markets Forecast series published by the Wichita State University Center for Real Estate.
“The inventory of homes available for sale is very limited,” said Dr. Stan Longhofer, director of the WSU Center for Real Estate. “As a result, the market still favors sellers despite the softening of demand due to higher mortgage rates.”
Longhofer will present the forecast at 10:15 a.m. Thursday, Sept. 28, at the Kansas Association of Realtors Annual Conference at the Hilton Garden Inn in Manhattan. He will be available for interviews after his presentation at about 11:30 a.m.
The 2024 Kansas Housing Markets Forecast series that reviews current housing market conditions in the major markets across the state – including Kansas City, Lawrence, Manhattan, Topeka, and Wichita – and forecasts housing market activity through the end of 2024. The series also includes Housing Outlooks for 10 smaller markets across the state.
Copies of all the forecast and outlook publications in the series can be found at www.wichita.edu/realestate.
Highlights of the 2024 forecast include the following:
Kansas Statewide Forecast
- Home sales – Home sales activity across Kansas continued to decline this year, constrained by the shortage of inventory. Sales are expected to end the year down 12.4% at 35,640 units and then remain essentially flat in 2024.
- Construction –New single-family building permits in Kansas are expected to drop by 18.4% this year to 4,700 units. Permitting activity should rebound by 4% to 4,890 units if mortgage rates fall next year as expected.
- Home prices – Tight inventories are continuing to put upward pressure on home prices across the state despite weaker demand. Consequently, Kansas home prices are expected to increase by 5.5% this year, followed by another 3.5% increase in 2024.
Kansas City Forecast
- Home sales – Total homes sales in the Kansas City area are expected to end the year down 16.2% at 33,810 units, due to tight inventories coupled with higher mortgage rates. Supply constraints will continue to hamper sales activity in 2024, with sales ending the year down just slightly at 33,740 units.
- Construction – New home construction activity in the Kansas City metropolitan area is projected to drop by 24.9% this year to 4,050 units and then rise by 4.4% in 2024 to 4,230 units.
- Home prices – The limited inventory of homes available for sale continues to put upward pressure on home prices. Kansas City home values should rise by 6.6% in 2023, followed another 3.7% increase in 2024.
Lawrence Forecast
- Home sales – Lawrence area home sales are expected to end the year down 12.7% at 1,160 units. The limited inventory of homes on the market will limit the market in 2024 as well, with sales dropping by 0.9% to 1,150 units.
- Construction – New single-family building permits are on pace to fall by 10.2% to 230 units this year, the lowest level since 2014. Construction activity is projected to stay flat in 2024 due to a shortage of available lots.
- Home prices – Lawrence home prices are expected to rise by 5.4% this year in the face of tight inventories. This trend should continue in 2024, with prices rising another 4.4% increase next year.
Manhattan Forecast
- Home sales – Home sales activity in the Manhattan-Junction City metropolitan area should fall by 7.7% this year to 1,790 units, a result of tight inventories and higher mortgage rates. Sales are projected to rebound in 2024, rising 5% to 1,880 units.
- Construction – New home construction activity in the Manhattan-Junction City area has remained fairly steady over the past few years in spite of rising mortgage rates. This trend is expected to continue, with 260 new single-family building permits projected for 2023 and 265 units in 2024.
- Home prices – Home price appreciation in the Manhattan-Junction City metropolitan area appears to be slowing to a more typical pace this year. Area home values a projected to rise by 4.4% this year, followed by another 2.7% increase in 2024.
Topeka Forecast
- Home sales – Topeka area home sales are expected to fall by 8.4% this year to 2,890 units due largely to a shortage of inventory. Supply constraints will continue to decrease sales activity in 2024, with sales ending the year down 1.7% to 2,840 units.
- Construction – New home construction activity in the Topeka area is expected to decline by 9% this year to 385 units. In 2024, permitting activity should increase by 3.9% to 400 units if mortgage rates fall as expected.
- Home prices – Home values in the Topeka area should continue to increase at a steady pace for the foreseeable future, rising 4.3% this year and 3.1% in 2024.
Wichita Forecast
- Home sales – Weaker demand and tight inventories are impeding sales growth in the Wichita area. Sales should end the year down 10.4% at 9,470 units and continue to fall in 2024 to 9,390 units.
- Construction – New home construction activity in the Wichita area is expected to fall 7.2% this year to 1,255 new single-family permits. In 2024, permitting activity should increase by 8.8% to 1,365 units if mortgage rates fall as expected.
- Home prices – Wichita home prices will continue to appreciate in the face of limited inventory, but at a more typical rate. Home values should rise by 4.2% this year, followed by another 3.4% increase in 2024.
For more information and a copy of each of the publications in the 2024 Kansas Housing Markets Forecast series, go to www.wichita.edu/realestate, or contact Longhofer at 316‑516-6365 or stan.longhofer@wichita.edu.
About Wichita State University
Wichita State University is Kansas' only urban public research university, enrolling more than 23,000 students between its main campus and WSU Tech, including students from every state in the U.S. and more than 100 countries. Wichita State and WSU Tech are recognized for being student centered and innovation driven.
Located in the largest city in the state with one of the highest concentrations in the United States of jobs involving science, technology, engineering and math (STEM), Wichita State University provides uniquely distinctive and innovative pathways of applied learning, applied research and career opportunities for all of our students.
The Innovation Campus, which is a physical extension of the Wichita State University main campus, is one of the nation’s largest and fastest-growing research/innovation parks, encompassing over 120 acres and is home to a number of global companies and organizations.
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